domingo, julio 12, 2009
Un Análisis Integral
An analytical problem to reduce the risk to invest and promote
Alfredo Ascanio, Ph.D
Universidad Simon Bolívar
Investment decisions and in tourism promotion are based on the markets for temporary visitors with buying power. An example may clarify this approach. In a seminar held some years ago by the Travel Committee of the European Economic Community, whose goal was to estimate the potential travel based on the construction and delivery of new aircraft and future investment in tourist accommodation facility, Mr. C. Everett Johnson, a partner at the consulting firm Kerr and Foster, Inc. stated:
"If it is now selling only two Boeing 747 aircraft with a configuration of 400 seats each, and assuming a 50% use of their installed capacity in seats, and to operate with passengers from Europe to remain an average of 17 days and of which 70% used hotel rooms, then you require additional 4760 quarts, of which 75% were hotels tourist (type Ramada Inn) and 25% luxury hotels (type Euro building).
But that amount of additional hotel rooms would need an estimated investment of about U.S. $ 80,000 per room for hotels 3 and 4 star and approximately $ 180,000 per room for luxury hotels, would require an investment total of perhaps $ 500 million dollars, depending of course on the type of hotel design, the land value of the investment per m2 of construction, the average value of the equipment and furnishings and the cost of equity and borrowed capital.
Mr. Johnson also reported that these planes were already ordered 53 units to serve the travel corridor of the North Atlantic and most of those teams would be in service for the high tourist season. And also noted that Hawaii had already decided to expand its hotel rooms in order to duplicate them.
When the consulting firm Kerr and Foster was saying that Americans who travel to Europe was a middle-class segment, and that no demand luxury hotels, which was indicating was that the customer does not require large lobby or restaurants, not expensive decorations, hotel facilities, but rather "comfortable" with central air conditioning, modern and functional rooms, adequate bathrooms with shower and nice cafés and buffet meals.
Faced with these possibilities for architects and economists are asking: What is then the expected profitability of a hotel that would let U.S. investment of $ 80,000 per room and who also worked on average 65% of its installed capacity in rooms with an average fare of $ 100 per room / night and that one could only obtain 60% of bank financing, or U.S. $ 48,000 per room, leaving U.S. $ 32,000 per room on capital investment?
There is no doubt that the estimated annual sales for the fourth could be at least 365 x 0.65 x $ 100 = U.S. $ 23,725 and total sales by room and year hired could be equal to 2 times higher, or U.S. $ 47,450. Thus, the gross profit on the sale, before deducting depreciation and interest paid to a bank, would be equal to 40% or U.S. $ 47,450 x 0.40 = U.S. $ 18,980 per room and per year.
The loan granted in an environment of an economy with low inflation and as a possible investment would total estimated at U.S. $ 80,000 per room x 0.60 = U.S. $ 48,000 per room and perhaps giving a period of 10 years and a preferential interest rate 8% per annum. Thus, the debt service to pay per year would be equal to the capital recovery factor: U.S. $ 48,000 x 0.149029 = U.S. $ 7153 per room, as a share of annual capital and interest over the term of 10 years and a payment of principal or capital estimated at U.S. $ 7153 x 0.463193 = U.S. $ 3318 and interest of $ 3835 for the first operational year.
The average value of depreciable assets on a straight-line construction of about $ 40,000 and equipment exceeding $ 20,000, would be as follows: U.S. $ 40,000 / 20 = $ 2,000 and $ 20,000 / 10 = U.S. $ 2,000 or U.S. $ 4,000 per year, plus interest of $ 3835, would give U.S. $ 7835, so the remainder of the taxable value equal to U.S. $ 18,980 less $ 7835 = U.S. $ 11,145 U.S. per room and year and the income tax would be equal to U.S. $ 11,145 x 0.35 = U.S. $ 3901, leaving a profit after tax equal to U.S. $ 7245 per room and with the depreciation that would yield a value of U.S. $ 11,245 equivalent 24% of the estimated quarter sales for the first operational year.
The value was equal to U.S. $ 11,245 but would be necessary to cancel the capital to the Bank estimated at U.S. $ 3318, so that the value to the investors would only be $ 7927 per room / year, with the discounted rate of 10% Sovereign Bond (opportunity cost) would yield the following value: U.S. $ 7927 x 0.909091 = U.S. $ 7206 as cash flow per room for the first operational year, which is quite attractive.
For all the above was in that same seminar Mr. H. Kruls. Advisor KLM, he said, with much property, that investment in tourist accommodation depends on a much more complex relationship between available seats on aircraft, the needed hotel beds, but very special funded loans that allow value to the investors before they properly paid the tax before other incentives should be considered.
Investment in formal hotel is high risk, so that managers also invest in hotels or apartments timeshares, which helps offset in part by the low yields of the low tourist season, where it is possible that operating near the equilibrium point of 35% of installed capacity.
In this regard was very clear Gilbert Trigano, former director of Club Med, when he said that many visitors from developed countries would be willing to spend on a holiday trip of 10 days, what that person would pay for the annual depreciation of motor vehicle ($ 1,000 per person per day), and them to satisfy that market investment per room can not be greater than U.S. $ 60,000 per quarter, trying to find designs less orthodox and more imagination, allowing lower operating costs and maintenance, so that the return on capital can be estimated at least 20%. For the same reason the directors of the Club Med said that they could not afford to have 25 waitresses and several Bell-boy, devoted to the work of serving the customer, but a group of entertainers to ensure fun and recreation for tourists.
We do it in the presence of different strategic approaches, which have to be sure that the equity capital can achieve a net present value (NPV) and a positive Internal Rate of Return (IRR) greater than the minimum rate of return (TMAR) lower risk, as are the returns on sovereign bonds of the State.